As an experiment, let's do a wildfire smoke forecast for Washington State, including the potential impacts at the surface.
The satellite image this morning at 6:31 AM was scary, with the southern smoke boundary just south of Olympia. Low clouds were along the coast and some higher convective clouds were over Idaho.
Look closely and you can see the shadows of the Idaho clouds on the smoke plume.
The smoke appears most opaque in the early morning and evening when the sun angles are low. Roughly 3 hours later than the above picture the smoke is more transparent; if you look carefully the southern boundary of the smoke is starting to shift northward.
Nearly all the smoke is above 2000 meters...which is good. Reduces the probability of mixing smoke to near sea level (e.g., to the large population of the Puget Sound region).
Here is the latest PurpleAir air quality map. Terrible air quality to the west of the Rockies. Some smoky air is mixing down in and near higher terrain over Washington and southwest BC, but the particulate levels are modest.
Smoke Prediction
Such winds will tend to move the smoke northward. And the winds at the same level tomorrow morning are even more favorable for pushing the elevated smoke away.
Here is the latest PurpleAir air quality map. Terrible air quality to the west of the Rockies. Some smoky air is mixing down in and near higher terrain over Washington and southwest BC, but the particulate levels are modest.
Smoke Prediction
Now the good news for Washington State. The winds are switching to more southerly and southwesterly, which should move the smoke away from us.
The predicted winds at 700 hPa (about 3000 meters or 10,000 ft) this morning at 11 AM are southerly (from the south) over western Oregon and Washington and southwesterly over southern BC (see below).
A profound cool-down is predicted starting Sunday, so get your sweaters ready.
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